Hi. Lingo here. Let me tell you a little story. It goes like this:
The very first week of the game, I struggled to write up questions for the game. After all, you players hadn't even met the contestants yet (at least not on the screen--there were the blogged biographies), so it would presumably be quite difficult for you to predict their behaviour.
In previous Prediction Leagues, one of the questions I always asked in the first or second week was who would be the Final Four. As unpredictable as Survivor is, it's almost an impossible question, or so you would think. (The day before Guatemala aired in the US, I predicted the Final Four would be Rafe, Cindy,
Morgan, and I think Brian.) When this season started, I decided that it would be just too difficult to pick the Final Four without having first seen a minute of the show.
One week later, it was time to ask the question. I calculated the theoretical odds of picking the correct 4 out of 17 contestants:
1 in 2380. (In comparison, picking 3 out of the 4 is only 1 in 49.) As you know, my position has always been that it's most sensible for the value of a question to be linked to the odds of guessing it. So I made the question be worth 2380 points.
Of course, the "real" "odds" of picking the Final Four, after watching the first episode, is probably better than 2380 (I imagine
Citanul may have something to say about this). You can kinda tell which contestants are gonna be good (Rafe) and which are gonna suck (Judd). And in fact, many many Palau Prediction League players picked 3 out of the Palau Final Four, usually missing only wallflower Jenn. And of course, if someone did manage to pick the F4 and win 2380 points, it would pretty much make the rest of the game moot.
But, I still figured, it would never happen. Right? I mean, what right-minded person would pick Lydia to be in the Final Four??
So, the question was posted, the guesses came pouring in, and I sat back and scanned the posts, holding my breath.
Then along came
Morticia.I looked at her answers: Stephenie, Rafe, Danni, and ... Lydia. And my voice cried out to the heavens, thusly: "D'oh!"
Morticia, as long-time League players know, has a very befitting name, because Morticia has almost voodoo-like powers of prediction. Morticia's powers of prediction are so great that in the inaugural Prediction League, she scored supernaturally higher than most of the other players, losing out only to
Sunshine (because, of course, light beats darkness--although darkness may have won were it not for an ill-timed nap).
In more recent Leagues, Morticia and Sunshine have not been as prominent, missing the guess deadline on several weeks each; perhaps they've been saving their supernatural powers for more worthy pursuits (like winning the 2010 World Cup venue for SA).
But Morticia saved just enough of her voodoo power to conquer a Prediction League at long last--and she did it on the second week. The crown is--rightfully--hers. Us mere mortals can only bow at her feet, and tremble.
Still the gladiators battled on, not knowing they were already dead. In Second Place,
Nicivdl not only managed to keep hold of her spot above the other mere mortals that she had only just gained last week, but also widened the gap impressively. Below her,
Anni managed to cling to a slight lead over
Tink, while
devilgirl and
Callandor, who had managed to dominate the scoreboard for over half the season, have sunk to a season-final 5th and 7th, respectively (allowing
megan to break into the clique at 6th).
It was a mighty and spectacular battle, I have to say. And I hope the gladiators enjoyed it in any case.
Our thanks go out to the 30-odd players who made this League the most closely contested one yet. My thanks go out especially to
Callandor, devilgirl, Tink, Anni, and
Nicivdl, who consistently held the Top 5 positions and each held the Top Spot at least once (I think). We've never had a League in which the lead changed so often, and that made this one particularly exciting.
Needless to say, however, this will be the last one in which a question is worth over a thousand points!
| Players |
Running |
Last Week's Total |
This Week's Total |
Winner |
Delayed |
Running Total |
| MAXIMUM: |
6202 |
|
|
|
|
6202 |
| 1 : Morticia: ( 12 ) |
4222 |
1333 |
224 |
165 |
2500 |
4222 |
| 2 : Nicivdl: ( 1 ) |
2800 |
2007 |
277 |
345 |
171 |
2800 |
| 3 : Anni: ( 4 ) |
2657 |
1889 |
268 |
330 |
170 |
2657 |
| 4 : Tink: ( 2 ) |
2651 |
1974 |
91 |
405 |
181 |
2651 |
| 5 : devilgirl: ( 3 ) |
2503 |
1901 |
251 |
205 |
146 |
2503 |
| 6 : megan: ( 6 ) |
2309 |
1654 |
254 |
235 |
166 |
2309 |
| 7 : Callandor: ( 5 ) |
2178 |
1769 |
183 |
210 |
16 |
2178 |
| 8 : Sunshine: ( 7 ) |
2106 |
1519 |
238 |
300 |
49 |
2106 |
| 9 : Paige: ( 9 ) |
1939 |
1460 |
113 |
220 |
146 |
1939 |
| 10 : Fingolfin: ( 8 ) |
1917 |
1471 |
105 |
195 |
146 |
1917 |
| 11 : shy fly: ( 10 ) |
1818 |
1358 |
84 |
275 |
101 |
1818 |
| 12 : Citanul: ( 15 ) |
1768 |
1288 |
130 |
200 |
150 |
1768 |
| 13 : shakes: ( 14 ) |
1760 |
1296 |
173 |
190 |
101 |
1760 |
| 14 : Andy: ( 19 ) |
1728 |
1214 |
84 |
300 |
130 |
1728 |
| 15 : Trinity: ( 13 ) |
1726 |
1330 |
0 |
225 |
171 |
1726 |
| 16 : Amazingly: ( 11 ) |
1655 |
1346 |
93 |
110 |
106 |
1655 |
| 17 : Fabjewel: ( 21 ) |
1616 |
1126 |
94 |
270 |
126 |
1616 |
| 17 : michb: ( 17 ) |
1616 |
1235 |
0 |
240 |
141 |
1616 |
| 19 : Shirmell: ( 18 ) |
1610 |
1218 |
76 |
205 |
111 |
1610 |
| 20 : batchick: ( 16 ) |
1568 |
1284 |
138 |
70 |
76 |
1568 |
| 21 : Ria: ( 26 ) |
1544 |
981 |
162 |
250 |
151 |
1544 |
| 22 : thepersonza: ( 20 ) |
1538 |
1212 |
95 |
100 |
131 |
1538 |
| 23 : JCL: ( 28 ) |
1484 |
890 |
254 |
150 |
190 |
1484 |
| 24 : jords: ( 22 ) |
1345 |
1114 |
0 |
130 |
101 |
1345 |
| 25 : Prawn: ( 23 ) |
1341 |
1087 |
33 |
110 |
111 |
1341 |
| 26 : Peapod: ( 27 ) |
1335 |
959 |
25 |
190 |
161 |
1335 |
| 27 : Sapphire: ( 24 ) |
1310 |
1072 |
77 |
60 |
101 |
1310 |
| 28 : Ruegshana: ( 25 ) |
1241 |
1069 |
37 |
135 |
0 |
1241 |
| 29 : Riet: ( 29 ) |
1189 |
767 |
172 |
230 |
20 |
1189 |
| 30 : Gemstone: ( 30 ) |
902 |
686 |
65 |
70 |
81 |
902 |
| 31 : Pixie: ( 31 ) |
847 |
557 |
0 |
150 |
140 |
847 |
| 32 : earthie: ( 32 ) |
654 |
379 |
55 |
110 |
110 |
654 |
| 33 : Spongebob: ( 33 ) |
58 |
58 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
58 |
Please stay tuned a little longer, as there will be a final post (perhaps tomorrow) giving statistical breakdowns in all the major points categories.
And then, of course, next week will see the debut of
The Amazing Race: Family Edition Prediction League.
Finally, I must of course thank
Fingolfin, without whom this League would--seriously--have been impossible, frankly. All who enjoyed the game owe him a big round of thanks, too.