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Survivor Guatemala: Statistics

Written by LingoFingo from the blog The Survivor XI Prediction League on 27 Jul 2006
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Lingo here.  I'm finally getting around to posting the statistics on the Survivor Prediction League.  So let's get to it!  These stats should of course be taken with several grains of salt, the biggest being the Number of Weeks Played:

devilgirl: 14
shy fly: 14
Paige: 14
batchick: 14
Fingolfin: 14
megan: 14
Shirmell: 14
shakes: 14
Nicivdl: 14
Citanul: 14
Andy: 14
thepersonza: 14
Sapphire: 14
Amazingly: 14
Prawn: 14
Gemstone: 14
Tink: 14
Callandor: 13
Fabjewel: 13
michb: 12
jords: 11
Morticia: 11
Anni: 11
Sunshine: 11
Peapod: 11
Riet: 11
Ruegshana: 10
Ria: 10
Trinity: 9
JCL: 8
Pixie: 6
earthie: 5
Spongebob: 2


We'll first take a look at the individual question categories which composed the "Weekly" scores.  The first category was the Reward Challenges.  Here Nicivdl comes in first with a slight advantage over Anni, and with Prawn and shy fly sharing third.

Reward Points:
Nicivdl: 156
Anni: 135
Prawn: 100
shy fly: 100
megan: 96
Sunshine: 96
Amazingly: 91
Morticia: 90
thepersonza: 85
Citanul: 81
Trinity: 75
shakes: 71
Gemstone: 71
Paige: 71
JCL: 61
michb: 55
Tink: 46
Callandor: 46
Ria: 41
Peapod: 41
Shirmell: 41
Sapphire: 36
devilgirl: 36
Fabjewel: 36
Fingolfin: 36
batchick: 36
Andy: 30
Ruegshana: 26
Riet: 20
Pixie: 20
jords: 16
earthie: 0
Spongebob: 0


The next category was the Immunity Challenges.  In this category, Anni comes out on top, followed in second by Tink, while Nicivdl slips to third.

Immunity Points:
Anni: 218
Tink: 190
Nicivdl: 183
JCL: 180
Citanul: 143
megan: 138
Andy: 133
Amazingly: 128
shakes: 120
Sunshine: 115
Ria: 115
Sapphire: 113
Trinity: 103
Morticia: 98
devilgirl: 95
Fabjewel: 93
Callandor: 90
thepersonza: 83
Fingolfin: 80
batchick: 60
earthie: 58
Peapod: 55
Gemstone: 53
Riet: 50
Ruegshana: 45
Prawn: 43
michb: 40
Shirmell: 40
Paige: 33
shy fly: 33
Pixie: 20
jords: 10
Spongebob: 10


Arguably the most important category to be able to predict is the Eliminated category (at least if you're trying to figure out who'll win the million).  In this category, Nicivdl wins again, this time by a whopping 100 points over second-place TinkCallandor claims third.

Eliminated points:
Nicivdl: 458
Tink: 358
Callandor: 306
Anni: 283
Sunshine: 276
Amazingly: 248
megan: 236
Paige: 234
JCL: 215
shakes: 175
Ria: 170
Prawn: 160
Citanul: 145
Andy: 145
michb: 141
Peapod: 140
devilgirl: 135
Trinity: 133
Fabjewel: 120
Morticia: 118
Fingolfin: 113
thepersonza: 110
shy fly: 85
batchick: 83
jords: 78
Gemstone: 75
Ruegshana: 75
earthie: 65
Sapphire: 55
Riet: 35
Shirmell: 20
Pixie: 0
Spongebob: 0


Our final regular Weekly category was the Other Votes.  Devilgirl found herself to be particularly adept in this category, taking the gold by a considerable margin.  thepersonza takes second over Anni by a mere 4 points.

Other Votes points:
devilgirl: 291
thepersonza: 237
Anni: 233
Nicivdl: 213
Shirmell: 207
megan: 184
Morticia: 183
Callandor: 178
Fingolfin: 175
Sunshine: 171
JCL: 145
Sapphire: 129
Tink: 119
Amazingly: 117
Peapod: 100
Fabjewel: 98
Riet: 91
Andy: 86
Ria: 81
batchick: 79
Citanul: 78
Prawn: 78
shakes: 76
shy fly: 76
Paige: 73
Ruegshana: 43
jords: 33
michb: 26
Gemstone: 20
earthie: 20
Pixie: 19
Trinity: 11
Spongebob: 0


Who was best at matching words and deeds to the Survivor who said or did them?  That was arguably what most of the non-delayed Bonus Questions were about.  Here, we find devilgirl once again at the top of the heap, this time by a 50-point margin.  Anni grabs another 2nd-place spot, while Callandor nabs third.

Bonus Points (non-delayed):
devilgirl: 672
Anni: 621
Callandor: 546
Nicivdl: 526
megan: 501
Sunshine: 453
Tink: 406
Fabjewel: 359
batchick: 341
Fingolfin: 335
Paige: 313
Citanul: 311
Amazingly: 309
Morticia: 297
shy fly: 288
shakes: 276
Riet: 270
Gemstone: 266
Shirmell: 263
JCL: 263
Trinity: 259
Sapphire: 253
Andy: 250
Prawn: 240
jords: 197
Ruegshana: 197
thepersonza: 186
Ria: 183
Peapod: 148
earthie: 141
michb: 111
Pixie: 59
Spongebob: 17


Combining the above 5 categories gives us the total Weekly Points which were used to create the Weekly ranks.  Here we naturally find Nicivdl, Anni, and devilgirl in the top 3 spots.

Weekly Points:
Nicivdl: 1536
Anni: 1490
devilgirl: 1229
Callandor: 1166
megan: 1155
Tink: 1119
Sunshine: 1111
Amazingly: 893
JCL: 864
Morticia: 786
Citanul: 758
Fingolfin: 739
Paige: 724
shakes: 718
Fabjewel: 706
thepersonza: 701
Andy: 644
Prawn: 621
batchick: 599
Ria: 590
Sapphire: 586
shy fly: 582
Trinity: 581
Shirmell: 571
Gemstone: 485
Peapod: 484
Riet: 466
Ruegshana: 386
michb: 373
jords: 334
earthie: 284
Pixie: 118
Spongebob: 35


Using the Weekly points above, each week we "awarded" "medals" to the players who came in First, Second, and Third that week.  If we were to count up those "medals," we'd come up with the following table.  Considering just Gold medals (first-place finishes), we find Nicivdl, Anni, and Callandor on top.  But if we look at total medals won, we find that Anni, Nicivdl, and megan did the best.

Medals:
  Gold Silver Bronze Total Podium Finishes
Nicivdl: 4 2 1 7
Anni: 3 3 2 8
Callandor: 3 0 1 4
Sunshine: 2 1 1 4
Tink: 1 0 3 4
devilgirl: 1 0 1 2
megan: 0 2 3 5
JCL: 0 2 1 3
Paige: 0 1 1 2
Fingolfin: 0 1 1 2
Fabjewel: 0 1 0 1
Sapphire: 0 1 0 1
Trinity: 0 1 0 1
Peapod: 0 0 1 1
Citanul: 0 0 1 1
thepersonza: 0 0 1 1
Andy: 0 0 1 1
shy fly: 0 0 1 1


After the Weekly points, the next major question category was the Delayed Bonus Points.  Of course, Morticia, with her 2380 points for nailing the Final Four, earns the tops spot.  (Without it, she'd be in 16th with 151.)  In second place is Tink, followed by Nicivdl in third and megan in fourth.  Note also that most of the points below came from DB Question #10 (see the last table), in which you predicted the order of elimination for the last 9 contestants.

Delayed Bonus Points:
Morticia: 2531
Tink: 217
Nicivdl: 209
megan: 199
JCL: 190
devilgirl: 189
Anni: 187
Trinity: 180
Peapod: 171
Paige: 165
Ria: 164
Fingolfin: 163
Citanul: 160
Pixie: 159
thepersonza: 157
Andy: 154
michb: 143
Fabjewel: 140
shakes: 132
Amazingly: 132
Prawn: 120
Shirmell: 114
shy fly: 111
jords: 111
earthie: 110
Sapphire: 104
Gemstone: 97
batchick: 79
Sunshine: 75
Callandor: 42
Riet: 23
Ruegshana: 20
Spongebob: 13


Finally, we come to the last major category, which was the Winner Poll.  Who did the best in consistently picking Survivors who would last a long time?  The answer is Tink, who picked Danielle every single week except the first one (when she picked Steph).

Coming in a surprising Second and Third are shy fly and michb, respectively.  It's surprising because they did not pick Danielle as often as some of the other contestants who are below them in the table, like Nicivdl, Anni, and Andy.  (Shy fly, in fact, started with 3 picks for Steph, followed with 5 picks for Danielle, then switched to Gary for two weeks, picked Danielle again, switched again to Rafe for two weeks, and finally picked Dani once more the final week.)  The difference is in the first 2-4 weeks of the game, in which shy fly and michb picked Steph and Cindy, respectively--Survivors who lasted long into the season--while other players either didn't start playing yet or picked players like Amy and Brooke.  Such is the importance of the first few picks!

Meanwhile, Fingolfin, who picked Steph the most times--every week but once--ends up in 7th, 300 points below the top.  That's the difference between picking the Winner and picking the Second Placer.

Winner Poll:
Tink: 1315
shy fly: 1125
michb: 1100
devilgirl: 1085
Nicivdl: 1055
Paige: 1050
Fingolfin: 1015
Anni: 980
Callandor: 970
Trinity: 965
megan: 955
Andy: 930
Shirmell: 925
Sunshine: 920
shakes: 910
Morticia: 905
jords: 900
batchick: 890
Citanul: 850
Ruegshana: 835
Ria: 790
Fabjewel: 770
Riet: 700
thepersonza: 680
Peapod: 680
Amazingly: 630
Sapphire: 620
Prawn: 600
Pixie: 570
JCL: 430
Gemstone: 320
earthie: 260
Spongebob: 10



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